Pay rising in real terms - coalition

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 24 Januari 2014 | 19.12

24 January 2014 Last updated at 06:38 ET
Prime Minister David Cameron

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David Cameron: "I want to see people paid more"

Most British workers have seen their take-home pay rise in real terms in the past year, the government claims.

It has produced figures showing all except the richest 10% saw their take-home wages rise by at least 2.5% once tax cuts were taken into account.

That is more than the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rate of 2.4% in the year to April 2013.

Labour said the figures were "highly selective" and did not take into account changes to benefits.

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Analysis

So do we all feel a little better off this morning?

The government is suggesting that the vast majority of us should.

There is a debate how the figures on rising wages add up. But this isn't simply a matter the statisticians - it's a battle for territory amongst the politicians.

Labour have made great play of a "cost of living crisis" -citing a fall, on average, in gross wages since 2010 of £1,600.

For a while, the government didn't have a dog in this fight -instead pinning its hopes of a political recovery on the economic recovery.

But now, teeth gnashing, they are getting on to Labour's ground in a sign that they won't concede any arguments before the general election.

The trouble is that trading statistics doesn't in itself make people feel better off - and the IFS say, across the piece, average incomes are still likely to be lower in 2015 than 2010.

The coalition are hoping, though, that today's foray might just plant the suggestion that - to coin a phrase - things can only get better.

The government said the figures show only the top 10% of earners fell behind the CPI rate - which excludes the costs of buying and owning a home such as mortgage interest repayments - with an average increase of 2%.

It said it made its claims by taking into account cuts to income tax and national insurance.

BBC political correspondent Iain Watson said the issue of whether households felt better off was far more important than any set of figures and might be what influenced voters ahead of next year's general election.

Conservative skills and enterprise minister Matthew Hancock said: "Of course, as a consequence of the great recession, people who work hard have been made poorer and times are tough for families as a result.

"That's why, as part of our long-term economic plan, we are cutting taxes for hardworking people so they have more money in their pockets and are more financially secure."

And speaking to BBC business editor Robert Peston on Thursday Prime Minister David Cameron said: "We are cutting people's taxes so we are seeing some positive signs on take-home pay but it's going to take time and we need to be patient and work through our long-term economic plan so it's a recovery that really lasts and that benefits everyone."

But Labour's shadow treasury minister Cathy Jamieson countered, saying: "These highly selective figures from the Tories do not even include the impact of things like cuts to tax credits and child benefit which have hit working families hard."

She said that under the current government, real annual wages had fallen by £1,600 since 2010 and figures from the Institute for Fiscal Studies showed that "families are on average £891 worse off as a result of tax and benefit changes since 2010".

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Analysis

Is real-terms pay now rising?

As ever, the answer to this depends on which statistics you choose to look at.

Official ONS figures on pay show that annual pre-tax pay rose 2.1% in the year to April 2013.

Over the same period, inflation was 2.4%, so in that period pay was falling in real terms.

However, now we know that CPI inflation has fallen to 2%, it might be reasonable to assume we have reached the point at which pay is again growing in real terms.

But other statistics tell a different story.

According to the ONS, average weekly wages rose by just 0.9% between the autumn of 2012 and 2013. That is well below inflation.

Put another way, the average weekly wage, pre-tax, rose from £472 to £475 over the last year.

On figures like that, not many people will be feeling richer.

And in any case, inflation out-stripped pay in each of the last five years. So we have quite a bit of catching up to do.

BBC deputy political editor James Landale said the government was trying to counter criticism from Labour that people were not feeling there was an economic recovery under way.

"The question is whether this kind of battle over statistics that will now ensue matters more than how people actually feel in their pockets," our correspondent said.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme the government had used "a perfectly sensible set of numbers" to calculate take-home pay for the 2012-2013 period.

But he pointed out that more up-to-date Office for National Statistics data - the average weekly earnings index - showed wages rose "quite a lot less quickly than inflation in the most recent months".

He added that the IFS's own analysis suggested that "if the recovery takes off and continues as expected, people will start to see their incomes rising by 2015... but they will be well below where they were six or seven years ago".

TUC General Secretary Frances O'Grady said the government's figures should be taken "with several tons of salt" as they did not include the effects of tax credits and benefits.

"Freezing child benefit has hit families hard," she added.

Earlier this week, the International Monetary Fund upgraded its forecast for the UK economy.

It now expects the economy to grow 2.4% this year - faster than any other major European economy - against its previous forecast of 1.9%.

That was further evidence, the Treasury said, that the government's economic plan was working.


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